Unemployment Insurance: A De-Securitization Strategy to Address Social Unrest Due to Cyclical Unemployment During an Economic Recession “Lessons From The Quezon City Wage Subsidy Program”

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns of 2020 have wreaked havoc on a global scale no one ever prepared for. Not only in the medical realm, but with it comes intense economic shock worldwide. As global economies abruptly halted, countries had no recourse but to declare an economic recession. The Philippine economy suffered a deep recession in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP contracting by 9.6% year-on-year. This was the most significant annual decline ever recorded by the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA).This massive decline in economic activity immensely strains the business sector, causing cyclical unemployment. As this pandemic-related unemployment coupled with COVID-19 fatalities intensifies, negative emotional stress is created, leading to a deterioration of economic confidence among individuals. Even as the world adapts to the financial effects of the pandemic, a global consensus is that overall economic activity will not rapidly return to levels achieved before the pandemic. This situation results in the prevalence of negative emotional stress, particularly in economically strained and politically polarized environments. It is also associated with political protests, which could lead to social unrest. This research paper aims to delve into the institutionalization of a National Unemployment Insurance (NUI) program derived from the lessons of the Quezon City Wage Subsidy Program (QCWSP). The NUI will be a human intervention to desecuritize the effects of a human security threat, with the Local Government Unit (LGU) as the implementing agency. The study revealed results of the Logit Regression model, validated by Goodness of fit tests McFadden R2 and Count R2 is that the selected variables have been statistically significant with 97% overall model accuracy. However, WSP programs particularly at the LGU level need to overcome communication barriers in a pandemic or similar situations. To strengthen the predictive power of the statistical model. It is recommended that similar longitudinal studies per industry may be undertaken in this regard.